Somalia: Salvaging the Failed State Part II
By Dr.Ali Adawe Abdullahi Barkhadle, 6th October 2010
I wrote an article on Somalia about eight years ago entitled -Somalia: Salvaging the Failed State. In that article, I looked at what ails Somalia and on how the international community had a myopic view of the Somali crisis and on how the ‘Failed State’ could be reconstituted along a Federal System of Government. Federalism was never visited properly by both TFG and TFG(II).
Since that article, Somalia today has gone from crisis to crisis in South Central and Puntland and the competing forces on the ground today are the proponents of Evil and Good, Weak Governments Vs Fundamentalists, the Ugly bit being saved for posterity.
Somalia is seen as one of the frontiers of the war on Terror by many governments and policy makers. Piracy has been a big challenge to the International community and on how they might engage a non functioning quasi-recognized government that barely control less than 5 km squared of Somalia.
In order to grasp the current Somali crisis one needs to look back at history and learn from the past while rigorously assessing current position and the possibility of what the future might bring. In short, you cannot gauge where you’re heading if you do not know where you came from. Somalia has been a nexus of geopolitical equations of Islam, Colonialism, the Cold War and today the war on Terror for close to many centuries.
The EU and the United States have also seemingly reversed their policy towards Somalia considering internal squabbles and on how the TFG (II) government has failed delivering on the promises it pledged in Djibouti two years ago. The TFG (II) government’s time in office is about to end with less than nine months to go yet so much needs to be done in the form of a new constitution, security, and governance. Though a new Prime Minister will not make much difference in the deadlocked political mess in TFG (II) the current President has to come up with a new Prime Minister very quickly lest he loses the support he is getting from the AU, EU and the US.
Firstly, my humble view is that Somalia will never be changed for the good if the International community’s engagement model is not changed. Secondly, a viable constitution can only be debated when a working government is put in place by the people of Somalia- not an imposed government that is either in exile, is non-representative or is being supported by brute force on the ground.
Today, Somalia is divided into three states mainly TFG (II), Somaliland, and Puntland. While TFG (II) is the only entity that has international recognition it is the one that has been worst on governance, transparency, accountability and performance and barely controls less than five square kilometers of Mogadishu and Somalia. Can this government be supported in its current form?
The current new policy of the US government in supporting the States of Puntland and Somaliland might bring some improvements on development, governance and accountability while shunning fundamentalism in the Horn of Africa but that needs a careful approach on the implementation front.
Thirdly, international relations being the life blood of any working government, the three Governments of Somalia, with the possible assistance of the International Community need to decide on a new Modern Capital where international diplomats can work freely without fear.
Fourthly, considerable controversy swirls around how the UN sponsored current TFG (II) came to power in Djibouti with over 550MPs and on how a former President was thrown out of office in December 2008, when he resigned while trying to save his face. A question begs how come Somalia was divided along clannish lines on what was called the 4.5 rule? A flawed process that needs to be revisited and thrown out if at all Somalia is ever to have a functioning government and legislature.
Finally, as a Somali politician, former presidential Candidate of the 2004 elections, a Somali Statesman, and as the chief architect of the creation of Puntland State in 1997-98 and the TFG in 2004 it pains me at seeing how Somalia is being dilapidated by the combined bad policies of the UN and AU. I would kindly appeal to the International Community to refrain from propping up or supporting a government that does not have the mandate of its people as is being witnessed in Mogadishu today, for fear that fundamentalism is seen as a possible solution by many Somalis in the Diaspora and within Somalia.
The writer is the Chief Executive of Management Consulting firm Amsas Consulting based in Melbourne, Australia and can be contacted at ceo@amsasconsulting.com